灣區房地產市場快訊 as 1/5/08

December 2007 had
only 488 completed sales
(closings) in SCC. That is the fewest of any month
since 1984. Inventory, reached its peak of 4,925 on October 27, 2007. This was the highest
level of inventory since 1998 and is 206% of the 8-year average. Since mid-November, inventory has been decreasing at a rate that is slower than
normal, causing the seasonally adjusted inventory to climb. We believe that inventory will likely begin
to increase more rapidly than normal in the near future.

Sales volume has actually improved slight more than
normal, causing an increase from 51% to 59% of the 8 years average. Even with
this improvement, sales volume remains dramatically reduced at only 59% of the 8-year average.

The
increase in supply coupled with the decrease in demand has moved much
of
SCC into what we consider a Buyer’s market. The notable exception is
the area close to the San Mateo County – Santa Clara County border. The demand for housing close to
the SMC/SCC border remains strong causing that area to appreciate. The
San Mateo – Santa Clara County border tends to lead local real estate
market trends. This area is doing much better than either SCC or SMC as
a whole.
The current trend seems to be closing in on this border from the
outlaying areas.

Since 1998, the real estate market within Santa
Clara County has normally been fairly homogeneous. 2007 has seen dramatic geographic
and price splits. The expensive
communities (Palo Altos, Los Altos, Mt View, Sunnyvale, Cupertino, Saratoga, Los
Gatos and Almaden Valley) are doing well and are at or near their record high
prices. The affordable and out laying communities (East, Central, and South San
Jose) are doing
poorly. These factors artificially increased the median prices.

The Mt View, Los Altos and Palo Alto area has only
65 Days of Unsold Inventory (DUI). Los Gatos
and Saratoga with 115 DUI. We would consider both of these regions to be a
Seller’s market. Other areas such as Santa Clara, Willow Glen,
Cambrian and Campbell are
slower with 160 DUI and North Valley, Milpitas, Blossom Valley have 290 DUI. We
would consider both these regions to be Buyer’s market. East Valley, Central San
Jose and South San Jose have 705 DUI and South
County is at 754 both extremely slow markets.

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